On Oct. 1, the Islamic Republic of Iran launched some 181 ballistic missiles at the state of Israel. Most were shot down; those that weren’t fell largely in uninhabited areas. Thanks to the technological and intelligence superiority of Israel and her allies, the Iranian attack — the second such attack in six months — was foiled. As of this writing, the world waits for Israel’s promised response.
The reason for Iran’s attack is obvious: Israel is currently thoroughly destroying Iran’s terror proxies in the region. Since Hamas’ brutal mass terror assault of Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has devastated the terrorist group: some 23 of its 24 battalions have been destroyed; its leadership caste has been wiped out, from political leader Ismail Haniyeh (assassinated with pinpoint accuracy in Tehran) to military leader Mohammed Deif (killed in a targeted airstrike) to the missing Yahya Sinwar, Oct. 7 mastermind. Israel has established working military control over virtually all of the Gaza Strip, including the border between Gaza and Egypt, which had been used as a resupply thoroughfare by Hamas. Hamas has been degraded to fighting a low-level insurgency against IDF forces.
Meanwhile, after nearly a year of taking thousands of incoming rockets in its north from the Iranian-backed Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, Israel finally responded with overwhelming force and competence. First, in a feat of espionage that beggars the imagination, Israel simultaneously exploded the beepers of Hezbollah’s terrorists, wounding or killing thousands of them and wrecking Hezbollah’s methods of communication; then, when Hezbollah attempted to reestablish communications via walkie-talkies, Israel blew those up as well; after that, Israel proceeded to unleash the Israeli Air Force on targets across southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley and Beirut, wiping out the vast majority of Hezbollah’s long-range munitions; finally, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke at the thoroughly vile United Nations and warned that Israel would no longer be crossed, the IAF dropped a series of bunker busters on the head of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah, killing him and more of his top lieutenants. All Hezbollah could do in response was uselessly fire rockets into empty areas of Israel’s north.
Even the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, who have been firing cruise missiles at Israel, have felt Israel’s wrath: Israel has issued multiple direct strikes at Houthi-controlled ports in a country some 1,800 kilometers away.
Iran’s proxies are on the ropes. This means that the forward operating arm of the Iranian regime has been amputated. And that’s what necessitated Iran’s attempts to strike Israel directly.
This was a major miscalculation.
Israel in the post-Oct. 7 era is not the Israel of before. It is a state unwilling to risk its future on the bet that its enemies will act with reasonable caution. It can no longer afford such bets. And so Israel has set about a mission the West has not pursued in decades: victory. Israel will not back down and cut deals that merely delay the inevitable, buying time for her enemies to arm up. Israel has struck at its enemies and will continue to do so.
And it is working.
The Abraham Accords, negotiated by President Donald Trump’s team, have remained durable. The Sunni Gulf states see that Israel remains the region’s most powerful military and economic force, and will act accordingly to ally with it. Iran has been forced into a defensive crouch, lashing out ineffectually at Israel and America while blustering about its larger-scale ambitions.
But, in an utter inversion of Iran’s ambitions since Oct. 7, Israel has grown stronger. Iran has grown far weaker. The Iranian regime is unpopular; its military has proved itself ineffectual in anything but quashing its own citizenry and facilitating the death of civilians in Iraq and Syria; its terror proxies have f—ed around and found out. And the region will be better off for it.
All of which should remind the West of a simple principle: there is no substitute for victory. Peace results from the credible threat of use of overwhelming force, not from empty words around glossy tables. A strong and more confident West makes for a better and more prosperous world.
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